Iran War
Iran has not defeated the U.S. military—but its attacks have damaged the regional base network and forced Washington to reconsider how close American power can safely operate.
Iran War
A wider war no longer requires a decision by one leader to begin it. It can emerge from accumulated reactions by states and armed groups answering the last escalation.
Iran War
The most revealing measure of Iran’s progress is not how much American equipment it destroys. It is how often Iran determines where American forces must go next.
Iran War
Iran is expanding the battlefield faster than the United States can close it. But every new success gives more countries a reason to oppose what Iran is building.
Iran War
Iran may be discovering that the most usable form of deterrence is not necessarily nuclear.
Iran War
The danger is not merely that neither side can impose its preferred outcome. It is that both sides can keep discovering new ways to raise the cost.
Iran War
The United States built extraordinary capability into a relatively small number of expensive systems. Its adversaries are learning how to distribute capability across cheaper, expendable ones.
Iran War
The United States may not be fighting a fixed Iranian arsenal. It may be fighting an Iranian learning curve.
Iran War
America can still project extraordinary military power. What may be ending is its ability to do so without exposing scarce, expensive assets to increasingly capable asymmetric threats.
Autonomous Warfare
President Trump called it “the war with Iran,” placed victory in the future and tied that victory to Iran's nuclear program and lower oil prices. Those words may have consequences far beyond gasoline prices.